Last Week: 1/3 Winning Bets = +£22
Overall Success Rate: 3 out of 12 Bets Won
Overall Profit: £64.10
Why is it that as soon as I call it a day with online betting I start to build a steady profit from predictions?? It was probably – *probably* – the right decision to cancel my Ladbrokes account a few years ago, but Murphy Law is striking with a vengeance. The good news is of course that for you fine people I am providing decent tips 🙂 Another successful week last time out, with the treble on Ural, Terek and Zenit coming in for an individual win of £52, making an overall gain. Ural were unusually shaky in their win over Ufa, scraping a narrow win which scuppered my first tip on Ural -1 handicap, but I was some way off with Krasnodar’s rampant display to thrash Dinamo in Moscow 4-1.
There are some significant mismatches this weekend, so I’ve had to dig a little deeper to find decent value. With this being the Grand National weekend lots of people will be sticking pins in newspapers to blindly put their money where their mouth has not right in being, so stick with the ever reliable Russian Premier League and you’ll do just fine. Right, here we go…
Bet 1 Saturday 9 April
TREBLE on CSKA to beat Mordovia, Zenit to beat Amkar and Rubin to beat Dinamo, £10 @ 47/20
Potential Return: £33.50
Ok, ok, CSKA to beat rock-bottom Mordovia at home is hardly a groundbreaking prediction, even less so when one consider Andrey Gordeev resigned/was sacked/went on gardening leave/was abducted by aliens yesterday*, but it serves the purpose of bumping up the treble. I would even say 3/10 is good value given the total mismatch on all levels, while CSKA have the added incentive of regaining top spot from Rostov after the latter’s dull 0-0 draw last night against Anzhi. On paper, Zenit to beat Amkar is a safe bet too, but there are more grounds for double the value in the odds (3/5) in this one, as the hosts have only lost three matches at home in the league all season, and also have a Russian Cup semi final to spur them on in the season finale.
Zenit are hitting their stride now, and after dispatching CSKA last weekend they have shown they have the squad to deal with their strongest rivals. It might not be high scoring, it might not be pretty, but the champions have plenty in their locker and will relish the chance to move within three points of the summit (assuming CSKA complete their formalities against Mordovia). Which leaves Rubin to beat Dinamo; this offers by far the best value in light of their respective current form. Statistics show that Dinamo are stubborn away from home with nobody drawing more on their travels, but they don’t fully take into account their capitulation against Krasnodar, or Rubin’s impressive attacking threat in their Zenit defeat a few weeks back. A nice little earner to kickstart the weekend.
Bet 2 Sunday 10 April, Krasnodar v Ural
Over 3.5 goals, £10 @ 9/4
Potential Return: £32.50
Krasnodar are actually in much better form on the road than they are in front of their own fans, but when you have Fyodor Smolov in goalscoring form and the thrilling talent of Vyacheslav Podberezkin – just check out his wonder striker against Dinamo – coming through, backed up by the Brazilians of Ari, Wanderson and Joaozinho, the craft of Odil Akhmedov and the vision of Mauricio Pereyra, you will always have a chance to score a hatful. They have one of the most sensibly-constructed squads in the league, and can now call upon virtually an entirely fit squad.
Ural somehow have been involved in more goals than any other side than Zenit, who ae level on 67 goals for and against in 22 matches. This is mostly down to their defensive record, and more specifically their fullback positions which have given cause for concern. It’s uncertain whether Podberezkin will face is old side, but even though he left a gaping hole Ural filled it with the relatively hidden talents of Dmitry Korobov, and veteran forward Spartak Gogniev has found a new lease of life just when his side have needed it. I expect a home win, but Ural to contribute to the scoreline.
Bet 3 Monday 11 April, Krylia v Lokomotiv
Sergey Kornilenko to score first, Draw final result, £10 @ 30/1
Potential Return: £310
I admit that any first goalscorer relies on a slice of luck, and this tip looks as long as the odds, but bear with me on this one. Krylia have the most horrendous home record in front of goal of only four in ten matches this season, and have only just emerged from a barren patch that few clubs in the world could match. Prior to breaking the curse last week against Mordovia, they had scored just three in 13 matches since mid-September, winning once, and have not scored for six straight home matches. So why on earth am I pushing for a goalscoring bet?
Well, it’s quite simple really: when you wait this long to break a hoodoo as painful and lengthy as Krylia’s, the utter release is worth more than the statistics on a page. They will be in front of their own fans in Samara for the first time since the autumn too, which will give them a boost. Krylia really do have some quality attacking players, especially Andre-Pierre Gignac’s cousin Yoann Mollo and Gianni Bruno, with some more than capable front men in former Blackpool hitman Sergey Kornilenko. Adis Jahovic has blown hot and cold this season, and after Kornilenko opened the scoring last week he is a dead cert to start up front against Lokomotiv. The visitors have been on good, if not explosive, form of late, and will respond to going behind, but would probably accept a point away from home to keep on track.